Curse

John Cotica · Feb 17, 2007, 09:29 PM // 21:29

283 fortunes and 2 pigs. not opening fortunes anymore, will likely trade the last lunar tokens for fortunes and sell those after the festival ends.

silara_jorinset · Feb 17, 2007, 09:30 PM // 21:30

Managed to get my piggy

, just one from ~180 fortunes though..
On a side note, there was someone advertising in shing jea for a chinese dragon mini pet that WASN'T a kunnavang. Anyone heard anything on this or is this a crazy rumour?

holababe · Feb 17, 2007, 09:41 PM // 21:41

Statistically speaking you will need to open ~330 Lunar Fortunes before getting a mini pig.

Lunar Fortunes sell for about 50g each, making a mini pig worth ~16.5k

Loviatar · Feb 17, 2007, 10:25 PM // 22:25

[QUOTE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lamont Shadow

as to raw - numbers - yes they have raw numbers - not statistically significant enough to prove anything by themselves since only 19 people have reported in. (however, the fact you did not know that shows you didn't bother checking before accusing - and that, in itself, is the behavior of an idiot)

19 or 190 or 1900 or 19999 still does not make a valid sample.

how do you verify either the number of pigs or attempts they report.

since ONLY the ANET/NCsoft logs of total pigs to total attempts will give valid stats anything else arrived at is only guesswork. (so why look?)

Quote:

And then you look for a way to prove or disprove it - in this case, people finding pigs today would disprove that there was a limited supply or that there was a glitch

did you note that pigs are being gotten today?

that some had wonderful luck and others stank?

conspiracy theories make wonderful scapegoats.

i didnt get one and i heard this on wiki so............

John Cotica · Feb 17, 2007, 11:15 PM // 23:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by holababe

Statistically speaking you will need to open ~330 Lunar Fortunes before getting a mini pig.

Lunar Fortunes sell for about 50g each, making a mini pig worth ~16.5k

50g a fortune? I see lunar tokens ranging from 100 to 200g, and a fortune is three tokens. so a pig is worth... 100-200k!

Gwmaster · Feb 17, 2007, 11:15 PM // 23:15

got mine on my 16th lunar fortune

Syntonic · Feb 17, 2007, 11:58 PM // 23:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Cotica

50g a fortune? I see lunar tokens ranging from 100 to 200g, and a fortune is three tokens. so a pig is worth... 100-200k!

Which makes me wonder why I'm still trying. I just went through ANOTHER 154+ (1x154 batch and several other smaller batches) fortunes. I might as well just try to sell this stuff and buy minipets because obviously, it's much more worthwhile to do so. Plus, with the bonus profit, I can possibly equip my characters with some decent stuff.

lord_shar · Feb 18, 2007, 12:00 AM // 00:00

I've burned over 200+ lunar fortunes... still no piggie

ColaManiac · Feb 18, 2007, 12:01 AM // 00:01

lol... i was pissed when i heard that both of my guildies got pigs at their 20 attempt... finaly i got 2 of them on my 398 and 400 try... ^^

Thermoblaze · Feb 18, 2007, 12:13 AM // 00:13

Quote:

Its is also believed that you can get it by giving Lunar Tokens to the Fortune Teller.

This is from wiki http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Miniature_Pig
Anyone know something about this?

i have opened 120 fortunes and no pig

P.S. what with us that we don t ahve items for chefs?

Ishmaeel · Feb 18, 2007, 12:20 AM // 00:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loviatar

[...]only guesswork[...]

No. Taking notes on the actions carried out and results achieved, then examining your notes and arriving at some conclusions is not guesswork. It's research. Granted, statistical research does not give you exact answers, but the answers are damn close to the real ones when you have a good sample size.

Guesswork is this: "onoz i spent 200 fortunez and not one piggy to sell for 30K wtf i guess anet nerved it!!!!111"

Another thing: False and misleading information does not survive long in a wiki. Sure, there are vandals and there *could* be persons who post fake numbers but thanks to peer review, anything too far off the norm would be spotted immediately, and a real vandal would not take the time to fake an article, anyway. he would just attempt to deface it which would be reverted before he could say "lol noobs". I believe only people who "cared" about the data would undertake this research.

However, in a forum, some joe posts something out of the blue and it becomes fact - set in stone. Nobody is there to review and edit his post.

So, forums are awesome for discussion and that's it. When you need information, you turn to a wiki.

mr_groovy · Feb 18, 2007, 12:42 AM // 00:42

Jeez Anet Thx alot for dropping the rate. 1 Guildy first try, Other guildy 30.
Me 300 and NOTHING. Thx a lot.... I SOOO apreciate it.

Pissed and bought one at 3 Ecto's...... HUMBUG

nekopowa · Feb 18, 2007, 12:43 AM // 00:43

I sold mine for 40k earlier today, guess someone was desperate. Seen people waste 300~fortunes and didnt get one.

Fire Nin · Feb 18, 2007, 01:12 AM // 01:12

Man this sucks for me I couldnt play Friday or Today and I only have a little bit of time tommorow. How am i gonna get a pig and a mask???

Loviatar · Feb 18, 2007, 01:16 AM // 01:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ishmaeel

Another thing: False and misleading information does not survive long in a wiki. . When you need information, you turn to a wiki.

according to another wikidiot the *stats* are based on a whopping 19 people (out of how many hundred thousand) over a period of a few hours.

and you believe that can give any kind of a valid result?

P. T. Barnum was right

Naomi Heartily · Feb 18, 2007, 01:21 AM // 01:21

I've opened over 400 of the fortunes, no joke, and I haven't got ONE pig. I earned every single one too, didn't buy anything.

Arenanet hates me.

skarkees · Feb 18, 2007, 01:27 AM // 01:27

Ok for real now,

this shouldnt be the way, people get that ugly pet.

i also spend another 200 lunar fortunes and didnt get a single pig (after i get my first pig on the 3th lol).

But still this is redicilous, people spend so much money on those pets, and I understand why. Pets are hot these days.
But why the low drop rate, Anet made a big mistake imo.

lord_shar · Feb 18, 2007, 01:29 AM // 01:29

300 fortunes and counting... still nothing meaningful to show for all the trouble. I give up.... I have better things to do.

Ishmaeel · Feb 18, 2007, 01:53 AM // 01:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loviatar

according to another wikidiot the *stats* are based on a whopping 19 people (out of how many hundred thousand) over a period of a few hours.

and you believe that can give any kind of a valid result?

P. T. Barnum was right

There are data gathered by a mere 31 people there, but that's not what counts. What counts is the data involves over 2600 attempts. And with that sample size, I'd say the result would approach the truth pretty closely.

I believe in goodwill and logic over any frustrated forum troll who shows xis level of sophistication with the insults xe uses in every single one of xis posts.

P.S: http://www.historybuff.com/library/refbarnum.html

Windstriker · Feb 18, 2007, 01:57 AM // 01:57

After an estimated 800 Fortunes, I managed to obtain the pet this afternoon. So yes they still appear but perhaps not as often.